Remember the days before the wonderfulness of legalized betting? The days when once brackets were finally locked in, you would spend hours looking them over and filling them out with the hope of winning a few hundred, or if you were lucky enough, a few thousands of dollars? Well, I have a great news for you! Times have changed and you don’t have to wait a month to win money, because at Bet Rivers and Ceasars you can win a few hundred, or if you’re lucky enough, a few thousand every day! Below are my favorite picks for Round 1! For those of you new to my picks – I like to bet games where I feel that the public’s bias of a team effects the line. This ultimately means we will have a 1- or 2-point value on every game we bet, and over time it will lead to us winning a lot of money! So, without further ado, here are my picks for the games tonight! Enjoy the Madness my friends!
Overall March Madness Record: 5-5 (-1 units)
*Current Odds at Caesars Sports Books
Thursday 7:09 PM EST – CBS
With this being the first game in four days, we need to assume there will be A LOT of public action coming in on it. Since the biggest sucker bet is the over, we will be all “under” the under (great joke, Ned. Thanks, everyone). When you factor in the publics love of Gonzaga’s higher power offense with the possible #1 overall pick, we will confidently bet one unit on the Under of 154.5.
2 Villanova (-5)
Thursday 7:29 PM EST – TBS
Michigan is one of two teams from the overvalued Big 10 that has made the Sweet 16. Which is a bummer, because we have cleaned up betting against BIG 10 teams and I wish there were a few more left. So tonight, we need to continue to take advantage of the publics blind love of BIG 10 and grab Villanova with confidence. Give me one unit on Villanova -5
3 Texas Tech
Thursday 9:39 PM EST – CBS
I am shocked that the public isn’t all overall Duke tonight. Usually when the public sees the higher seed getting points, they bet the house on them! But for some reason that isn’t the case tonight. About 55% of the money and bets are coming in on Duke. So, we are going to stay away from the spread and grab the over in this one. 58% of the bets are coming in on the Under but 71% of the money is on the over. Let’s put one unit on the over of 136.
1 Arizona (-1.5)
Thursday 9:59PM EST – TBS
What I love to hear when I talk to my friends about betting games are phrases like “Team A only has to win by a basket?!”. When they say things like that, I know right away that I will be betting Team B every time. And don’t get me wrong, my friends are awesome people, but just terrible bettors. So, when one of my buddies said to me, “let’s take Zona on Thursday, they basically just have to win”, I smiled and said “Nah, I’m going to bet one unit on Houston!” With 61% of bets coming in on Zona and only 22% of the money, I am feeling VERY confident about our bet.
Check in tomorrow for my picks for Friday games! You can also follow me on Twitter @feelinC0nfident where I’ll be giving out more value picks throughout the entire tournament!
Good luck to everyone, bet within your limits, and have fun!
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