Billy J’s Wednesday MLB Picks: Tigers @ Orioles

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Billy J (YTD +9.41) breaks down his best bet for Wednesday’s MLB Action

The fairy tale season for the Orioles may soon be coming to an end. With limited to no expectations for the 2022 season, the Orioles have shocked the baseball world this year regardless of their final record and potentially missing the playoffs. It’s still not over until it’s over, but being five games out of the American League wild card final berth with 15 games remaining does not look good for the O’s. To add insult to injury, the remaining games of the season are against the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays. Teams that are all in the mix and fighting for playoff positioning and momentum.

Before the Orioles embark in this difficult home stretch of September, they will conclude the final game of the three-game series against the Detroit Tigers. The Orioles are in danger of being swept in their home ballpark as they have lost the first two games of the series. The Tigers have outscored them 14-2 in the first two games of the series and the Orioles combined have just eight hits in the series. In the first game on Monday night, Tigers starter Tyler Alexander took a no-hit bit into the seventh inning.

Each game is a must-win and in today’s matchup the Orioles will task right-hander Jordan Lyles (10-11, 4.70 ERA) to keep that glimmer of hope to the 2022 season. September has not treated Lyles well as he has been tagged for 12 earned runs in two starts. Lyles has not gone more than five innings in his two September starts and has a 12.46 ERA. Prior to this dreadful September campaign, Lyles had back-to-back starts where he pitched 13 2/3 innings and only yielded one earned run.

In his lone start against the Tigers earlier in the year on May 13, Lyles received the losing decision in which he went 5 2/3 innings and gave up four earned runs and struck out six. Opposing Lyles this time around for the Tigers will be their young right-hander Matt Manning (2-2, 3.28 ERA). After getting shelled by the Mariners four starts ago on August 30 in which he gave up seven earned runs in the loss, Manning has gone three straight starts without giving up a home run. Those three starts all in September have resulted in a 1-0 record and 2.80 ERA in that span.

This series has been quite a mystery as the Tigers have kept the Orioles bats quiet. For a Tigers team that was leaning towards losing 100 games or more this season may perhaps not hit that mark. Bettors may be looking at this game as complete desperation for the Orioles and for them to stop the bleeding. The money line has the Orioles at -155 and almost two thirds of the public bets on that line.

Lyles has been in decline in his recent starts and could be in for another tough start. The Tigers have inexplicably taken over this series and are playing for the sweep in the Orioles ballpark. I like the Tigers here to keep riding the momentum as the Orioles could see this season coming to an end. There may be some last-minute magic for the Orioles, so I’ll play this one safe compared to being overly aggressive yesterday.

The Pick: Tigers +1.5 -145 to win 1 Unit

Billy J is a NY sports area based bettor who is passionate about all his favorite NY teams outside the anomaly of fandom for MLB. He has over 10+ years experience reading lines, betting baseball and writing MLB and NFL based content.