Last week 1-4
Recap: all 4 loses were close and could have turned the other way. Tough to watch, but reassuring that we were so close. Oregon gets a pick 6 with 1 minute left in the game to cover for us, but couldn’t hold it. Clemson was a 2-point conversion away from covering. If Georgia Tech could make a FG or prevent a punt block, we would be looking at a +800 winner. The good news was Colorado is still bad and a team to potentially take advantage of the rest of the season. Ralphie, their mascot, was seen playing solitaire in their 4Q loss against UCLA last week.
Week 5 picks
Bret Bielema makes his return to Camp Randall with a new squad. Illinois is off to a 3-1 start, but those include wins against Indiana and Virginia. I am not impressed. Illinois statistically has a good defense, but I believe that Wisconsin will be able to exploit them on the ground with their rushing attack. Braelon Allen had 165 yards last week against Ohio State with an average of 7.2 yards per carry. I expect a similar game from him this week.
Wisconsin -7 vs Illinois 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Georgia State’s defense has been exposed in multiple games this year. They have given up 41 points that last two weeks and I see that happening again this week against the triple option. Army is averaging 38 points per game while Georgia State is giving up 38 points per game. We will make this a 2-unit wager.
Over 54 Georgia State @ Army 2.2 units to win 2 units
Wake Forest has hit over 64 points the last 3 weeks in a row. When Wake has faced a competitive team, they have aired it out. I see a similar game plan this week. Passing teams are great for the over because they are constantly picking up yards and at worse stopping the clock. The forecast is a nice 87 degrees with no chance of rain in Tallahassee. I expect to see some fireworks here.
Over 64 Wake Forest @ Florida State 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Don’t overthink it. Georgia will be focused after their “close” game against Kent State. Georgia will win handedly here.
Georgia -29 @ Missouri 1.1 units to win 1
As I mentioned in the recap, Colorado is bad. They are 0-4 and all of their losses this season have been over 24 points for an average of 31 points. Arizona QB Jayden de Laura is averaging 287 yards per game and will have no issue carving up the Colorado secondary. It would not hurt to buy that half a point here to make it 17 for the additional piece of mind.
Arizona -17.5 vs Colorado 1.05 units to win 1