Monday Night Football Best Bets: Rams @ Niners

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Previewing and Predicting MNF

It’s here and it’s gone, week 4 concludes tonight on Monday Night Football with the La Rams traveling to The Bay Area to take on the 49ers. Despite a 1-2 record and coming off an ugly loss on the road at Denver, the 49ers are a slight favorite against the Super Bowl champions. This has been a great rivalry since Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan took over as head coaches for their respective teams. They worked on the same offensive staff in Washington, so some overlap between the teams was inevitable. The 49ers under Shanahan have generally owned the Rams under Sean McVay except for last years NFC Championship game where the Rams beat the 49ers to get to and eventually win the Super Bowl. All of that should lead to a jam-packed game, let’s get into it.

Team Analysis:

La Rams:

It’s been somewhat of a rocky start to the season for the defending Super Bowl champions. They’re 2-1 through three weeks and are the only NFC west team with a winning record but haven’t looked dominant so far this year. Week 1 at home they got destroyed by the Bills and struggled to put away the flailing Falcons and Cardinals. Matt Stafford has not been great this year either throwing 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, to be fair though he was fairly clean last week against the Cardinals (not exactly a no fly zone).

San Francisco 49ers:

The 49ers are 1-2 so far this season and looked like an absolute disaster last week against the Broncos. Jimmy Garoppolo taking over for the injured Trey Lance went about as bad as it could’ve. Garoppolo was intercepted once and had a terrible safety when he forgot he was in his own endzone and stepped out the back of it. The 49ers offense generated just 10 points of offense on the day. Despite being terrible last week though Jimmy G has played very well against the Rams throwing for over 720 yard and 5 touchdowns in their three meetings last year.

The Pick

While Jimmy Garoppolo was terrible last week we have a pretty large sample size (52 games with the 49ers) that suggests the bad performances are generally balanced out by performances where the offense functions at a pretty high level with Garoppolo (note that I said with Garoppolo, not because of Garoppolo). The Rams have been pretty meh to start the year despite being 2-1 but I think it might be a case of bad team with a good record (CC the NY Giants). I don’t think the 49ers offense will be as bad as last week and their defense is 1st in defensive DVOA. I also think the under is a good play as both offensive lines are banged up and both teams have quarterbacks that have been limited so far this year. I predict a score around 20-17 49ers.

Pick: 49ers -1.5 (-110) & Under 42.5 (-110)

John Sezer is a New York based free-lance writer for PlayOnlineSportsBetting. He has experience in basic analytics and data analysis. Follow him on twitter @JohnnyBoySezer97 on Twitter and  you can find all of his picks and predictions on www.playonlinenewjersey.com/