Houston Cougars @ Memphis Tigers
After getting routed 31-13 by Houston at TDECU Stadium last year, I’m sure Memphis is looking for some revenge in this one, but I’m not sure they’re going to get it. Houston broke my heart last Friday night, once again finding a way to lose in their third overtime game of the season already. I admittedly wasn’t overly upset when their defense gave up the tying touchdown to Tulane with under a minute left in the 4th quarter, because I was also on the over and greedly wanted to to hit that bet as well, and I was confident Houston would win the game in overtime at home. In the words of the great Willy Wonky, though “You get nothing, you lose, good day sir!”.
The Tigers have been on a roll, winners of 4 straight, but I think the ability to convert on third down will be a big factor in this game, and that’s a major advantage for the Cougars. Memphis has done a great job protecting the ball and limiting turnovers this season thus far, but if Houston can generate pressure with their pass rush, and can force them into some uncharastic mistakes it will be the difference in this one. Memphis is 2-0 in AAC play, while Houston lost their conference opener to Tulane last week, so I expect the Cougars to play with a great sense of urgency in what should be a shootout.
Over 57 points (-110) 1.5 unit
Houston +.2.5 (-105) 1 unit (wait until closer to kickoff to see if this line gets back to +3)
Colorado State Rams @ Nevada Wolf Pack
You can count on the Wolf Pack to be fired up for this one, as they face off against their former coach, Jay Norvell, who shockingly jumped ship last December- I can’t blame him if he’d rather live in Colorado than Nevada, though. I’m sure facilities had a lot to do with the reason behind Norvell’s decision (along with Carson Strong graduating), which the Rams win by a mile, and long term I think it was the right decision, but this is 2022, not the future, and Norvell is dealing with the typical transfer portal attrition a first year coach trying to flip the locker room culture experiences. Both of these teams are pretty tough to watch, but I think the Wolf Pack and a fanbase with a chip on their shoulder have the edge in this one.
Nevada -3.5 (-105) 1.5 unit
Over 44.5 points (-110) .5 unit
UNLV Rebels @ San Jose State Spartans
The pole position in the west division of the Mountain West Conference is on the line in this one, and I expect San Jose State to rise to the challenge. UNLV coach (and SJSU alum) Marcus Arroyo has shocked many so far in 2022, leading the Rebels to a 4-1 start after finishing with just 2 combined wins his first two seasons at the helm, but the Spartans are the more complete team here on both sides of the ball, and home field should play a big factor. If this line were to jump up a point, I would be more inclined to lean UNLV in what I expect to be a close contest throughout, but I can’t pass up on grabbing SJSU at home laying less than 7 points, especially with the Rebels struggling at home last week and failing to cover against a New Mexico team that made me see red watching them attempt to generate offense at home against Boise State week 2.
San Jose State -6.5 (-110) 1 unit