Overall record: 3-3 (-1.77 units)
Last week 1-1
Recap: What is going on in Anfield? Liverpool got off to a horrendously slow start and was down 2 nil 17 minutes at home to Brighton and Hove Albion. The slow start is what eventually did us in for a 3-3 tie. The scoreboard indicated an even game, but the stats show us this should have ended in Liverpool’s favor. Liverpool 15-6 in shots, 54%-46% possession, 9-2 in corners. Tough tie as Liverpool did bounce back in their next game with a 2 nil win over Rangers FC. As for our win last weekend, Manchester City is exactly who we thought they were. They are on an absolute tear and are putting up video game numbers. Last week they got the 6-3 victory over their rivals Manchester United. The game was not even as “close” as the score indicates with Man U scoring garbage time goals in the 84th and 90+1 minutes. Haaland and Co. are certainly fun to watch.
This game as all the ingredients you could possibly want for a nice tie. Both of these teams have had 2 ties apiece in their last four games, so there is a recent trend going in our favor. Not only that, but the 2 ties Newcastle have had have been at home and the 2 ties Brentford had were on the road. Brentford is 5th in the league in scoring, but the vast majority of those goals have been at home. Brentford’s offense has been stymied on the road with just 1 score to show in their last 2 matches. Newcastle is the favorite here, but I believe the visitors from Brentford have the ability to hang around. For that reason, I think there is some real value in the +300 tie.
Newcastle vs Brentford to Tie 1.0 unit to win 3.0 units
We are going to keep riding the hot offense of Man City by taking their team total over 2.5. Since the EPL season started, Man City is 7-4 against the 2.5 number and some of those games were against much better competition than Southampton. Man City has scored more than 2.5 in their last 3 games in a row. They will get the chance to go for their 4th game in a row at home against a Southampton team that is susceptible on the defensive side. Southampton is currently 15th in the EPL in goals against which spells a disaster for the fire power than Man City can bring. Current EPL rankings for Man City are 1st in goals, 1st in assists, 1st in possession, and 1st in shots. I am surprised this line is not closer to -300, so we will look to take advantage.
Manchester City OVER 2.5 Goals vs Southampton 2.25 units to win 1 unit