Our NFL Expert, JG, gives out his picks you should grab now! Before the line moves!
I remember watching the Bears play the Niners during that monsoon week 1, and thinking to myself “this team definitely lacks talent, but they seem to want to play hard and give their coach all that they have”. When you listen to the way that Colts players, especially linebacker Shaquille Leonard speak about their former defensive coordinator, Matt Eberflus, his ability to connect with and motivate players shines through. In a game like this, between two teams that definitely shouldn’t have playoff aspirations by this point, I think that’s the type of edge that matters most, along with home field advantage on what I’m sure will be a chilly Thursday night in Chicago.
The other key difference between these two teams is that only one of them is starting Carson Wentz at quarterback, so until fading him doesn’t make me money, I’m inclined to continue doing so. If the Commanders want to get anything in return for their inexplicably poor decision to trade anything more than an open, stale bag of chips to the Colts for Wentz, they should record the progress rookie quarterback Sam Howell has been making every week in practice and release it to their fans under the title “Breaking Bad: Turnovers, not Meth” for $1 a copy, whenever the day finally arrives they bench Beaker for him.
Chicago Bears -1
I’m going to go out in a limb here, given my Fins murky situation at quarterback, but the Dolphins were #1 in ESPN’s power rankings after week 3 (I screenshot it so I’ll always have proof), and I’m a big believer in head coach Mike McDaniel, especially playing in a 1pm game at home. McDaniel has always been a run first coach, so I expect his game plan to center around trying to control the clock and limit possessions for the Vikings, while hopefully luring Kirk Cousins into a couple of Kirk Cousins’ favorite things (interceptions, in case that wasn’t clear). Like I said when I recommended grabbing Miami with the points back during week 3 against the Bills “the temperature in Miami is usually a factor, with the Dolphins wearing their white jerseys at home in an attempt to cook their opponent”, and dark purple gets hot fast. Fingers crossed that cornerback Xavien Howard is back healthy for this game, as him shadowing wide receiver Justin Jefferson all over the field is in my opinion more important of a factor than whoever ends up starting under center for the Dolphins.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Roheem Mostert go over 100 yards rushing again for a second straight week in this one (as long as he doesn’t get hurt, which is a constant ticking time bomb with him), so keep an eye out for that prop bet as well if you see it available.
Miami Dolphins +3
I’m sure I sound like a broken record at this point, but if the Bills are healthy, they’re the best team in the NFL this season. The problem is that their secondary hasn’t been healthy since week 2, but none of their opponents have been able to exploit it between Tau likely not knowing where he was for most of week 3, Hurricane Ian turning week 4’s game against the Ravens into a scene from a Pirates of the Caribbean movie, and rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett making the first start of his NFL career on the road in front of Bills mafia this past Sunday.
I have no doubt that the Bills have had this game circled on their calendar since the NFL was forced to edit their rule book after possibly the greatest game I’ve ever watched last January (you know it takes A LOT for them to admit when they’re wrong too), but no matter how well coached of a team I think the Bills are, or how much I want to see Josh Allen succeed, I can’t pass up on the Chiefs getting points at home, especially considering that Mahomes is undefeated in his career as an underdog. I’ll also be keeping a close eye on the O/U for this one, and likely buying some points to throw into a parlay, since the football fan in me so badly wants to just root for a million points.
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
JG is a New Jersey based football guru who has bet on all things sports over the last 15+ years. He is a creative and passionate writer who enjoys exploring new ideas and perspectives. You can find all of his picks and predictions on www.playonlinenewjersey.com/