Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Commanders @ Bears

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Our NFL betting guru, Luka, gives out his best bet for TNF!

Thursday 8:15 P.M. ET Prime Video

Game Preview:

The Washington Commanders go to the Windy City to face the Chicago Bears in a Thursday Night Football contest that only bettors could appreciate, and even that’s a reach.

Though these less-than-sexy showdowns may be loaded with betting value due to the degree of unpredictability and the public attraction.  That implies that you can unlock the door to NFL betting riches if you’re ready to get your hands dirty.

Betting Statistics on This Matchup:

  • 63% of the money and 62% of the bets are on the Bears spread of +1
  • 63% of the bets are on the under while 84% of the money is on the under of 38 points
  • 54% of the bets and 51% of the money is on the Commanders money line
  • The spread opened at Bears -1 and currently sits at Commanders -1
  • The over under opened at 38.5 and sits at 38

My Picks:

Bears quarterback Justin Fields won over some doubters with his second-half performance against the Vikings on Sunday after taking a beating for the first four games of 2022. Fields had a great day overall, going 15 for 21 for 208 yards throwing, making some great throws both short and downfield.

Receiver Darnell Mooney was responsible for 52 of those yards and contributed to the nightly highlight reel with an incredible one-handed catch on a long 39-yard pass. He only managed two receptions out of five targets in Week 5, but he should have had more and perhaps even a score had Fields not missed one throw in the first half.

Since head coach Matt Eberflus changed up his playbook before Week 3 in order to put the ball in the hands of his top playmakers, Mooney has played approximately 90% of the offensive snaps for the Bears.

Mooney’s activity has increased, with 16 total targets and 8 receptions for a combined 169 yards in the past three games, up from only two catches on five total targets for just four yards in the first two games. Given the opposition on Thursday, he still poses a serious threat.

Top wide receivers have battered the Commanders in their first five games, with six throws of 40 yards or more and seven specific WRs accumulating 60 yards or more.

Mooney could be able to reach this mark in one go given his increasing role in the offence, Fields’ rising confidence, and the Bears’ Thursday opponent.

  • Darnell Mooney over 45.5 receiving yards -115 (1 unit)
  • Darnell Mooney anytime touchdown scorer +215 (1 unit)

All indications lean to this being an offensive problem. While Chicago prefers to keep the ball on the ground, the Commanders are without three important players and will probably rely on the ground game to prevent giving Wentz opportunities to make costly mistakes.

It is even more probable that we will witness a low-scoring, nasty, back-and-forth game similar to last week’s Colts-Broncos showdown given that this game should be close.

  • Under 38 points -110 (2 units)