How to Bet on the NFL Entering Week 6

Latest News

5 Best Bets for Sunday’s NFL Week 6 Slate

Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints

Game Preview & Pick:

Last week I picked the Bengals to cover against the Ravens, even though I said I thought the Ravens would still win the game, because John Harbaugh is a much better coach than Zac Taylor. That all proved to be true, and I’m kicking myself for not being greedy and double dipping with Ravens ML. I like the Bengals again this week, but I’m a little weary of this spread in this one. The Saints are banged up on offense, with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landy out again, and Chris Olave in concussion protocol and questionable. While I’m optimistic that Olave plays, the Saints defense has been underwhelming so far this season, coming off a win at home against the Seahawks in which they surrendered 32 points. The Bengals offense is vastly superior to the Seahawks, and while I think this will be a much lower scoring game, I have a difficult time seeing the Saints offense keep up – Taysom Hill isn’t surprising any more teams this season with 4 touchdowns.

Bengals ML (-140) 1.5 unit

Bonus Pick:

Chris Olave over 61.5 receiving yards, if he plays (-115) .5 unit

Game Preview & Pick:

I’m sad that Matt Rhule is no longer coaching the Panthers, because he’s been gambling gold with how predictable it had become – the Panthers were 0-12 under Rhule when scoring less than 17 points. Combine that with Baker Mayfield under center, and the Niners -6.5 last Sunday was easy money. I’m trying not to giggle when I type that P.J. Walker is an upgrade over the former #1 pick Baker Mayfield, but Baker is the worst quarterback in the history of the NFL this season since they started tracking QBR in 2007, other than Jamarcus Russell, so how couldn’t he be? The Rams have struggled to find any form of an offensive identity this season outside of just throwing the ball to Cooper Kupp as often as possible, ranking dead last in the NFL in yards per play. When something isn’t working, you need to change your approach, and the Panthers look like the team who got that message going into this game.

Panthers +10 (-115) 1 unit

Bonus Pick:

D.J. Moore over 53.5 receiving yards (-115) 1 unit

D.J. Moore over 4.5 receptions (-110) 1 unit

Cooper Kupp over 7.5 receptions (-130) .5 unit

Game Preview & Pick:

Kenny Pickett was set up to fail week 5, making his first career start on the road against an always rabid Bills mafia. It’s not often that I criticize Mike Tomlin, who’s one of the best coaches in the NFL, but if it were me, I would have named Pickett the starter following the teams Thursday night loss to the Browns week 3, and given Pickett a full week of practice to build a game plan around him heading into their week 4 matchup against the Jets. The Steelers will be without the heart of their secondary, Minkah Fitzpatrick, to go along with the gaping hole left by the injury to T.J. Watt week 1, so this spread definitely makes sense. I’ve been bullish on the Bucs defense all season, and I expect them to make life difficult for Pickett all day long, but even despite Brady being 12-3 lifetime against the Steelers, I just think 10 points is too much to give a Mike Tomlin coached team coming off an embarrassing loss. The safest bet here in my option, though, is the over.

Over 46 points (-110) 1.5 unit

Bonus Pick:

Tom Brady over 286.5 passing yards (-115) 1 unit

George Pickins over 46.5 receiving yards (-120) .5 unit

Game Preview & Pick:

These are two very similar teams, who have built their offensive identities around controlling the line of scrimmage, pounding the rock, and limiting turnovers. The Patriots haven’t been their typical selves in regards to winning the turnover battle this season, having given the ball away 10 times already. I have a difficult time seeing that trend continue, though. The Browns got Myles Garrett back last week, but he didn’t look quite like himself following a car accident, and it may take a couple of more weeks until he gets back to full strength. The Browns will also be without top cornerback Denzel Ward, who remains in concussion protocol. Ole Billy Boy is 8-2 against the Browns in his career, and I’m sure still has a chip on his shoulder against the city of Cleveland even in his elderly years, despite it being a completely different franchise that fired him centuries ago.

Patriots +2.5 (-110) 1 unit

Bonus Pick:

Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown scorer (-130) 1 unit

Rhamondre Stevenson over 79.5 rushing yards (-135) .5 unit

Kareem Hunt over 65.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115) .5 unit

Game Preview & Pick:

Even with Skylar Thompson starting under center, I continue to be a big believer in head coach Mike McDaniel, especially playing in a 1pm game at home. McDaniel has always been a run first coach, so I expect his game plan to center around trying to control the clock and limit possessions for the Vikings, while hopefully luring Kirk Cousins into a couple of Kirk Cousins’ favorite things (interceptions, in case that wasn’t clear). Like I said when I recommended grabbing Miami with the points back during week 3 against the Bills “the temperature in Miami is usually a factor, with the Dolphins wearing their white jerseys at home in an attempt to cook their opponent”, and dark purple gets hot fast. Xavian Howard is back for this game, which is huge because he’ll shadow Justin Jefferson all over the field.

Even though I think the Dolphins cover the spread here, I’m going to overrule the homer in me, and go with the under as the safest play.

Under 45.5 points (-110) 1 unit

Bonus Pick:

Raheem Mostert over 60.5 rushing yards (-115) 1 unit

Jaylen Waddle over 4.5 receptions (-115) 1 unit