How to Wager on the EPL this Weekend

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Overall record: 4-4 (-1.77 units)

Last week 1-1

Recap: Man City is flat out fun to watch. With our bet of over 2.5 goals, Man City came through for us with 4 goals. We got our victory 4 minutes into the 2nd half. The game was not even close with Man City outshooting Southampton 21-5 and on goal 8-0. I am extremely disappointed in Brentford as they just did not put up much of a fight against Newcastle. Brentford came out flat and lost 5-1. It was always going to be difficult to get the tie, but at a 3:1 payout it was worth the bet. Regardless we went 1-1 again on the week and will look to go 2-0 and positive units.

Arguably the most anticipated fixture of the weekend pits Man City against Liverpool. The folks in Anfield are concern after 8 matches finds Liverpool 10th in the table and 14 points behind Arsenal. Man City is off to a hot start and sits 2nd in the table and only 1 point behind Arsenal. We have 2 of the 3 highest scoring teams in the EPL with Man City 1st with 33 goals and Liverpool 3rd at 20 goals. Combined, that is good for 3.2 goals per game. Liverpool has been average in the defensive half by giving up 12 goals on the season which is good for 10th of 20 in the EPL. There is a decent chance that Man City can cover the 2.5 by themselves, but we will pay the extra juice to include the Liverpool offense.

Man City @ Liverpool OVER 2.5 Goals (-215) 2.15 units to win 1 unit

The Gunners are a young team that came into the year with higher expectations, but was probably still a year or two away from winning the EPL. They have a young core of Oxlade-Chamberlain, Wilshere, Walcott, Ramsey, and Nasri. Those young players seem to be beyond their years and sit atop the EPL table while Leeds is in the back at 14th. Arsenal has the advantage at 13 goal differential in 9 games while Leeds is at -1 in 8 games. Arsenal is 2nd in the EPL in goals at 23 against Leeds at 12th for 11 goals. Arsenal has allowed 2 less goals then Leeds despite 1 more game, has 9 more assists, and outshot them by 38. It is pretty evident that Arsenal will simply be able to outclass Leeds on both sides of the ball and provides a decent value at only -185. 

Arsenal Money Line @ Leeds United (-185) 1.85 units to win 1 unit