Overall record 11-18 (-6.1 units)
Last week 2-2
Recap: A 2-2 week with a close call in the Nevada game. Despite Nevada outgaining Colorado State by over 100 yards, Nevada “ran into” the Rams kicker after a missed game winning field goal attempt. That gave CSU another opportunity to kick and get their first win of the season. Despite not having Herm Edwards, the Sun Devils rallied to pull the upset against Washington. Both Clemson and Ole Miss rolled for us against teams they are far superior to.
Week 7 picks
These 2 teams are trending in two different directions. After a 4-0 start for FSU, they have lost the last 2 against NC State and Wake Forrest. Clemson is undefeated and are starting to get their offense rolling. They have their last 3 opponents in common with Clemson going 3-0 while FSU went 1-2. Jordan Travis struggled against the NCSU defense last week going 15-30, 181 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INT’s. Bad news for him because the Clemson defense is even better. I like the Clemson money line and the spread here at -3.5. I went ahead and took the money line so I can sleep better in case FSU loses only by 3.
Clemson Money Line (-170) @ Florida State 1.7 units to win 1 unit
If you are familiar with my columns, you know we love to pick against Colorado. We are once again going back to that well and taking Cal. This season, Cal is outscoring Colorado by 12 points this season, giving up 21 less points per game, outgaining Colorado by 121 yards per game, and converting 3rd downs at a 10% higher clip. This should be a 17+ spread so we will take advantage of 14.5
California -14.5 @ Colorado (-120) 1.2 units to win 1 unit
These teams are pretty evenly matched although Utah has 2 losses on the year versus Southern Cal’s 0. Both average 40 points per game, give up 19 points per game, and within 3 yards of each other in yards per game. With these teams evenly matched and vying for the Pac-12 championship, I will take the Heisman hopeful in Caleb Williams to make a play. I also appreciate the plus money play when these teams should play a close game.
Southern Cal Money Line @ Utah (+140) 1 unit to win 1.4 units
Alabama has looked beatable in a couple of games this season. They beat A&M last week by 4 and last month they beat Texas by 1 point. I love that they have taken everyone’s best and are still on top. They still have Bryce Young and Tennessee is still Tennessee. UT is undefeated on the season, but I am not overly impressed with them. I would rather fade the public and take Bama until UT goes out and shows me something. UT is improved, but they are no Bama.
Alabama -7.5 @ Tennessee (-105) 1.05 units to win 1 unit