How to Bet on the NFL Entering Week 8!

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Week 7 Recap:

It was a good week, hitting on 4 out of my 5 picks, with the Ravens being the lone team failing to cover the spread. In hindsight, I wish I had taken both the Commanders and Seahawks money line, but that’s just splitting hairs – a win is a win!

5 Best Bets for Sunday’s NFL Week 8 Slate (Odds provided by DraftKings)

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings

Game Preview & Pick:

I wrote about this game in my Early Leans preview, and nothing has changed in that regard, aside from me remaining weary that this line hasn’t moved at all. Kliff Kingsburg is on borrowed time, and remains the only coach who’s ever made Patrick Mahomes a loser. I think Kingsbury has a bright college coaching career ahead of him, but his offensive philosophy is not geared towards even today’s NFL, and I’m hoping the Cardinals recognize that and move on before he gets Kyler Murray killed. I expect them to go out of their way to force feed DHop targets, lining him up in the slot as well as outside, which will be great for anyone who has him on their fantasy team, but will make their offense very predictable by the second half.

The Vikings are coming off a bye, are the healthiest they’ve been all season, and aren’t playing in primetime, so I expect Kirk Cousins to do just enough here to secure the cover, but I’ll also be taking them money line in any of the parlays I put them in, just to be safe.

Vikings -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

Bonus Pick:

Justin Jefferson over 89.5 receiving yards (-125) 1 unit

Zach Ertz over 38.5 receiving yards (-115) .5 unit

* I can’t find any prop bets on the number of receptions for DHop yet, but I lean the over as long as it’s 7*

Denver Broncos @  Jacksonville Jags

Game Preview & Pick:

If I was a teammate of Russell Wilson on the flight to London, where he reportedly did aerobics in the aisle for half the flight while everyone else was trying to sleep, I would have thrown him out of the plane. The Broncos need to move on from Nathaniel Hackett after this season, who is the only coach in the NFL I respect less than Kliff Kingsbury, and hire someone who doesn’t elect to line up repeatedly in shotgun formation on the goal line… I’m thrilled this game isn’t on the NFL Network, so it won’t interfere with me being able to watch GameDay, and I don’t feel bad for anyone in England who decided to be there in attendance.

Under 40.5 points (-110) 1 unit

Miami Dolphins @  Detroit Lions

Game Preview & Pick:

I hate betting against the Lions at home, because Dan Campbell is a good coach whose team plays hard for him, but I’m not sure how much they’ll get from running back D’Andre Swift in his first game back since injuring his shoulder week 3 against the Vikings. Jared Goff has been a completely different quarterback this season at home, posting a 10:2 touchdown to interception mark, vs 1:4 on the road. A big factor in this one will be whether wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown takes the field, as he’s Goff’s security blanket.

The Dolphins got Tua back last week, and you could tell that his teammates were thrilled to have him under center again, playing with a lot of energy, at least in the early going. The Lions give up the most points per game in the league, and I expect Tua to have a field day against their weak secondary. I wish I had grabbed this line before the hook, so I’m taking the money line in a game I expect Miami to win.

Dolphins ML (-175) 1.5 unit

Bonus Pick:

Tyreek Hill anytime touchdown scorer (-120) 1 unit

Tyreek Hill over 87.5 receiving yards (-115) 1 unit

Tua Tagovailoa over 274.5 passing yards (-115) .5 unit

Jaylen Waddle over 5.5 receptions (-135) .5 unit

New York Giants @  Seattle Seahawks

Game Preview & Pick:

Brian Daboll is a winner, plain and simple, and this Giants team has fed off that identity, despite lacking pretty much any semblance of talent at wide receiver. In his senior year high school yearbook, Daboll wrote “Remember, winners do what losers don’t want to”. As much as I’ve hated on Daniel Jones in the past, often calling him a great future backup NFL quarterback, he has risen to the occasion this season, ranking 6th in QBR with 5 game winning drives, 2 more than any other quarterback.

The Seahawks have been a great story so far this season, and obviously enjoy one of the strongest home field advantages in the NFL, but they struggle stopping the run, and I can see Saquan Barkley & Daniel Jones both having big games on the ground, in what I believe will be a lower scoring game where both teams emphasize grinding the clock.

Giants +3 (-105) 1 unit

Bonus Pick:

Daniel Jones over 38.5 rushing yards (-115) 1 unit

Kenneth Walker III over 81.5 rushing yards (-125) .5 unit

Wan’Dale Robinson over 43.5 receiving yards (-110) .5 unit

Wan’Dale Robinson over 4.5 receptions (+100) 1 unit

Carolina Panthers @  Atlanta Falcons

Game Preview & Pick:

Last week I picked the under for the Panthers game against the Bucs, writing “I’m tempted to grab the Panthers with the points here, like I should have done last week with the Steelers against Morbius & Company, but I think the under is the safest play”. The under hit, but the Panthers not only obviously covered the 13 point spread, they won outright, likely sending a lot of people packing in their survivor pools. P.J. Walker is better than Baker Mayfield (then again, who isn’t), and has made DJ Moore relevant again in fantasy football. The Panthers struggle to stop the run, which works out well for the Falcons since head coach Arthur Smith doesn’t believe in throwing the football, even when down by multiple scores. I think both of these teams will move the ball well enough to put points on the board.

Over 41 points (-115) 1 unit

Bonus Pick:

DJ Moore over 60.5 receiving yards (-120) 1 unit