Previewing Sunday Night Football: Packers @ Bills

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Sunday Night Football Week 8: Packers at Bills

The Bills host the Packers on Sunday Night this week in a matchup that was thought to be a potential Super Bowl preview before the season. That does not appear to be the case right now, while the Bills look like one of the best teams in the AFC the Packers look like one of the worst teams in the NFC. This is possibly the lowest point in Aaron Rodgers Hall of Fame career as the Packers sit at 3-4 and out of the playoffs in an improving NFC. Is it time to put another GOAT out to pasture or is there more left to his story? Let’s get into it.

Team Breakdown

Greenbay Packers

It is not a pretty picture in Greenbay right now, the receiving core is a problem, the special teams are a mess, and most surprising of all Aaron Rodgers has fallen off this season and it’s not just a function of the weak receiving core. The last two seasons Aaron Rodgers ranked 2nd in QB DYAR(Defense-adjusted yards above replacement), this gives the value of the quarterback’s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. This season Rodgers ranks 11th in DYAR, not terrible but not his MVP form.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are fresh off their bye and want to stay ahead of the Jets for the division and the one seed in the AFC (an incredible sentence). The Bills are 5-1 and currently on a 3 game win streak which includes wins over the Ravens and the Chiefs. The only blemish on the season is a 21-19 loss at Miami in week three (a game they had an opportunity to win). After the Chiefs win, many consider the Bills to be one of the best, if not the best, team in the NFL. They are second in points per game, averaging 29.3, 1st in total yards, and 1st in passing yards. They are 16th in passing yards. They are also first in team defense, allowing just 13.5 points per game. They are 1st in yards against, 1st in rushing yards against, and 11th in passing yards against

My Pick

I mean this has to be the right side doesn’t it? Yeah the Packers look terrible and the Bills look like a Super Bowl team, but this is just too many points. Aaron Rodgers has never been this big of an underdog in his entire career. The Bills have every advantage in this one, not the least of which is they are coming off a bye week, so they had a week to rest and didn’t have to travel. They also have the advantage of just being a much better team. I have no faith in the Packers ability to move the ball against a Bills defense that is No. 1 overall and No. 1 against the run. They will make Rodgers throw the ball and in years past that was always something teams wanted to avoid, but Rodgers is not the same Aaron Rodgers, and he won’t be able to do it successfully. But the Packers defense will keep this close enough to cover. Take the Packers here getting the points.

Pick: Packers +10.5 (-110)