World Series Record (0-1) -1.1 units with Phillies to win +160 still open
Recap: We have got a series now that it is tied 1-1 and heading to Philly. The Phils showed tremendous grit in Game 1 after going down 5-0 early and facing Justin Verlander. They rallied to score 5 and tie the game before winning 6-5 thanks to a J.T. Realmuto 10th inning homerun. On our end, we had a devastating bad beat on the Over 5.5 strikeouts for Aaron Nola. Nola was not himself as he struggled on the bump, but was also a victim of bad luck. Nola was able to work 4 innings and got to start the 5th inning. At that point, he had retired 3 in a row and got the first guy in the 5th to make it 4 in a row. Unfortunately, Nola was pulled after 81 pitches and 5 strikeouts. Very close to our total and without a few seeing eye singles, we very well could have gotten there. Game 2 was all Astros as they jumped out early with 3 runs in the first. Other than the Astros winning, the Game 2 storyline was Framber Valdez and his potential use of foreign substances. It was also suspicious that he changed his glove midgame. We do not know what the Phillies really think or if they are just giving PC answers in interviews to avoid a controversy. Regardless, the series goes back to Phillies tied at 1 apiece and I can only imagine the chaos in store for Game 3.
Lance McCullers Jr.: W-L: 4-2, ERA: 2.27, WHIP: 1.24
Noah Syndergaard: W-L: 10-10, ERA: 3.94, WHIP: 1.27
Game 3 Picks:
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 Run Line (-145) 1.45 units to win 1 unit
A tough pitching matchup for the Phillies, however the bullpen has been great this series. In case Syndergaard is off his game or is on a short leash, the bullpen should be ready to step up. So far this series, they have pitched 6 innings without giving up a single run. I also like the momentum for the Phillies and the home field advantage here. The goal of any team on the road is to at least steal a game and the Phillies were able to do that. Between the crowd noise and weather advantage, I like the Phillies and especially so with the extra run to work with.
Philadelphia Phillies to Win and Over 7.5 Runs (+310) 1 unit to win 3.1 units
I have already outlined why I like the Phillies at home in Game 3, but also added over 7.5 runs. These are two potent offenses with a reasonable total amount. Below are their season offensive rankings. With both offenses in the top 3rd in most major categories, there is plenty to like to parlay a Phillies win and over total.
Runs: Astros 8th Phillies 7th
BA: Astros 12th Phillies 8th
OBP: Astros 7th Phillies 9th
Home Runs: Astros 4th Phillies 6th