Week 11 Recap:
We had a decent Friday night, going 2-1, but I wish I had taken the over for the USC / Colorado game, or USC -34.5, rather than USC under 50.1 points… Oh well.
The over for the Fresno State / UNLV game hit with ease, and I mentioned in last week’s preview “Everyone and their mother is on Fresno State, especially with this spread being under 10 points at the moment. My hunch is that the Bulldogs roll, but there’s no freaking way I’m betting against a Friday night home dog. UNLV quarterback Doug Brumfield returned last week, in a close 14-10 loss to San Diego State, and I think that’s something a lot of betters may be overlooking here, with all the hype surrounding Haener.”
With UNLV covering the 9.5 point spread, Friday night home dogs are now 7-0 ATS, with 3 wins outright dating back to week 4.
South Florida Bulls @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Neither one of these teams are very good, to say the least. Tulsa is 0-6 ATS in their last six games, and South Florida is 0-5 ATS against teams with a losing record… somethings gotta give! I feel like picking either side ATS in this one is basically just throwing darts, so I’m leaning towards the under in what I expect to be a sloppy football game, although gun to my head I’d grab the Bulls with the points. While each team has some weapons at WR, USF true freshman quarterback Byrum Brown will be making his first career start, after leading the Bulls’ offense to a touchdown on the final drive of their game last week against SMU, so my hunch is that both teams will lean on their running games, which will keep the clock ticking.
Under 58 points (-110) 1 unit
San Diego State Aztecs @ New Mexico Lobos
Another Friday Night home dog! This honestly feels like a trap with the Lobos getting 14 points, and the O/U being 36… New Mexico was able to cover a 17.5 point spread (barely) as a Friday Night home dog back in week 2 against Boise State, so despite how frustrating it is trying to watch them generate any sort of an offense, I’m going to side with their above average pass defense being able to slow down the Aztecs aerial attack enough to keep this game within two touchdowns, but I think the safest play in this one is the over. San Diego State has been a different team since hiring offensive coordinator Jeff Horton, as well as making the switch to quarterback Jalen Mayden after week 5, and I’m confident that the Lobos can accidentally stumble into a couple touchdowns (big ask) for the over to hit.
Over 36 points (-110) 1 unit