How to Bet on the NFL Entering Week 12!

Latest News

Our NFL Expert gives his best bets for the Sunday Slate!

Week 10 Recap:

We had a little bit of a heat check last week, but still managed to hit on 60% of Sunday’s Best Bets, bringing the season total to 27-14-4. In hindsight, I wouldn’t have picked the Rams had I of known it was going to end up being the Battle Of The Backup Quarterbacks, but I’m still trying to figure out how Josh McDaniels is so bad at his job that he let Jim Irsay feel vindicated for a week.

Let’s get back on track with some filet mignon picks for Sunday!

5 Best Bets for Sunday’s NFL Week 11 Slate

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts

Game Preview & Pick:

I wrote about this game in my Early Leans preview this week, so I’ll keep it brief. I’m definitely a little bit concerned that this line is still hanging at 6.5, but I’m going to trust my gut and stick with the Eagles. The Eagles shouldn’t need any extra motivation after the Commanders let the wind out of their sail on Monday night, and I just think this is a bad matchup for the Colts in general.
Philadelphia has an outstanding defensive line / secondary, and if their offense is able to put up points early and force Indianapolis to abandon the run, I don’t trust the elder Matt Ryan to dink and dunk his way down the field at a fast enough pace to keep this within a touchdown.

Eagles -6.5 (-110) 1 unit

Bonus Pick:

Parris Campbell over 38.5 receiving yards (-135) 1 unit

Jalen Hurts over 42.5 rushing yards (-115) .5 unit

Kansas City Chiefs @ LA Chargers

Game Preview & Pick:

I was on the fence about the Chargers, because Brandon Staley is the worst head coach in the NFL whose name doesn’t start with Nathaniel, Kliff, or Josh, but with Keenan Allen & Mike Williams both questionable for the game, my hunch is that they both end up playing, or at the very least one of them will. In my opinion, this is a little bit of a revenge game for LA, after the hit Herbert sustained during their week 2 loss against Kansas City on Thursday Night Football derailed his season a little bit. The Chiefs haven’t been great ATS this season, and even though I picked them to cover against the Jags last week I wrote “I am surprised the line has moved in the opposite direction, likely due to the Chiefs being 3-5 ATS this season”.

I still lean towards Kansas City winning this game, but I’ll take the points in what I believe will be a close affair, as Herbert has historically played some of his best football against this divisional rival.

Chargers +5.5 (-110) 1 unit

Bonus Pick:

Justin Herbert over 276.5 passing yards (-115) 1 unit

Isiah Pacheco over 56.5 rushing yards (-120) 1 unit

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens

Game Preview & Pick:

Baker Mayfield, Baker Mayfield, Baker Mayfield…. The public is on the Panthers, and it’s hard to blame them when presented with the largest spread of the 2022 NFL season, but Baker Mayfield… The Ravens defense is getting healthy at the right time, and the trade for Roquan Smith certainly didn’t hurt either. I know the argument here is that the Ravens are a familiar opponent for Progressive, given the years he spent under center for the Browns, but trash is trash, regardless of the color of its uniform. With the O/U being 41.5 points, Vegas is begging you to take Carolina with the points, but I’m going to live dangerously.

Ravens -13 (-110) 1 unit

Bonus Pick:

Terrance Marshall over 32.5 receiving yards (-115) 1 unit Baker Mayfield over on interceptions thrown (they won’t even offer odds on it, LOL)

Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans

Game Preview & Pick:

With Washington coming off their most impressive win of the season in primetime on Monday night, they enter this matchup against the Texans on short rest, and Davis Mills has been playing much better football these past couple of weeks. I picked the Giants to cover 4.5 points against the Texans in my Week 10 Best Bets, which they did, but the Commanders aren’t the Giants, and they aren’t playing at home – this is the perfect spot to face them.

Texans +3 (+100) 1 unit

Bonus Pick:

Dameon Pierce anytime touchdown scorer (+105) 1 unit

Davis Mills over 219.5 passing yards (-115) .5 unit

LA Rams @ New Orleans Saints

Game Preview & Pick:

I’m calling my shot here – LA wins this game. With Cooper Kupp hitting to the IR, there’s no way they can win this game, right? The Rams have been painful to watch all season on offense, even with Kupp, but the Saints aren’t exactly juggernauts in their own right. The Rams boast the better defense, and this is the sort of situation I see them stepping up, while Matthew Stafford does enough to lead the team to victory, despite not having any semblance of an offensive line / running game.

Rams ML (+130) 1 unit

Bonus Pick:

Matthew Stafford over 1.5 touchdown passes (+160) .5 unit

Chris Olave over 4.5 receptions (-125) .5 unit Van Jefferson over 40.5 receiving yards (+110) 1 unit