Early Leans Entering Week 12 of the NFL

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Detroit Lions +9.5 (-110) vs Buffalo Bills

The Bills will head back to Ford Field for their second game in 4 days, and while I don’t necessarily think the travel time is too much of a concern, the Lions are a much better team at home, and I expect their fans to be lively this Thanksgiving with the team riding a surprising 3 game winning streak. Jared Goff has a 13:3 touchdown to interception mark playing at home, compared to 2:4 on the road, and as long as the Lions defense is able to keep Buffalo’s offense from marching up and down the field, Detroit should be able to lean on the run, averaging a respectable 132.8 yards per game, to keep their offense balanced. I don’t think the Lions will run their winning streak to 4, but this is too many points for a Dan Campbell coached team to be getting at home.

Tampa Bay Bucs ML (-180) @ Cleveland Browns

I wish I had grabbed this line at 3, before the hook, so I’m just going to have to play the moneyline instead. Tom Brady looked the best he’s been all season against the Seahawks in Germany week 10, and you have to think that maybe his last minute game winning touchdown drive against the Rams during week 9 helped get him back on track mentally. With his newly divorced super model x-wife already making waves with an apparent new man, I’m going to put my money on Brady going full Terminator mode the rest of the season, especially against a Browns defense that is amongst the league’s worst, surrendering 26.9 points per game. Coming off their bye, I expect rookie running back Rachaad White to be even more involved on offense, and this feels like a potential letdown spot for Cleveland ahead of Deshaun Watson’s return next week from his 11 game suspension.

New York Jets -5 (-110) vs Chicago Bears

This play is strictly based on A Tale of Two Quarterbacks – I think the Bears are going to be cautious with Justin Fields, after he injured his shoulder during their loss to the Falcons on Sunday, the Jets front office actually showed competence by announcing that they’re benching the angry Cabbage Patch Kid who’s been lining up under center for them. Chicago, if they’re smart, will use this opportunity to not risk any further injury to Fields, who has started to look like a legitimate franchise quarterback, while in turn tacking on another loss to their record, in the hope that they finish with a top 5 pick in April’s draft, and Will Anderson Jr. falls to them. The Jets have one of the best defenses in the NFL, so all they need Flacco to do is protect the football and manage the game efficiently, and they shouldn’t have much trouble covering a touchdown against a Bears defense that traded away its two best players.