UAB Blazers vs Miami University RedHawks
This game comes down to whether the RedHawks run defense, which ranked first in the MAC this season, giving up 135.8 rushing yards per game, can slow down a UAB rushing attack that averages 246.3 yards per game on the ground. I’m betting that they can, as they’ve only given up 6 rushing touchdowns on the season, but protecting the football will be key against a UAB team that led Conference USA in scoring defense.
Miami (OH) will be without starting quarterback Brett Gabbert for this game, which could be problematic for an offense that converted just 32.2% of their third down attempts this season, but it’s tough to pass up the points here given the low O/U total in a game where the clock should be running.
Miami OH +11 (-110) 1 unit
UTSA Roadrunners vs Troy Trojans
This line has swung considerably towards UTSA in the past couple of days, with the Roadrunners going from +2 to -2.5. While both of these teams had impressive seasons, each winning their respective conference championships and riding into this game on 10 game winning streaks, the difference for me in UTSA quarterback Frank Harris, who threw for 31 touchdown passes this season, while adding another 9 on the ground. Harris also does a great job of protecting the football, having thrown only one interception in his past 5 games.
Despite having one of the better defenses in the nation, I think Troy is going to have their hands full in this one, and could have a difficult time matching touchdowns with the Roadrunners.
UTSA ML (-135) 1.5 units
Zakhari Franklin anytime touchdown scorer (-170) 1 unit
Frank Harris over 271.5 passing yards (-115) .5 unit