The fallout from Ohio State blowing a 14 point lead to Georgia in the 4th quarter of the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl results in the largest spread for the National Championship game in over 20 years. I took the Buckeyes +300 to win the Natty before the season started, so you can imagine how hard I was pulling for them to win that game, and set up a great opportunity to hedge tonight, but I guess I can’t be too upset given that if it weren’t for USC choking against Utah (again) in the Pac-12 Championship, Ohio State’s season would have already been over
TCU Horned Frogs vs Georgia Bulldogs
This game sure feels like it’s going to be a boat race in the Bulldogs favor, but this isn’t the same Georgia team from a season ago, and TCU has been criminally underrated all season. I thought for sure that Michigan’s offensive line would dominate the line of scrimmage, and run the ball down the Horned Frogs throat, but I have to give credit to head coach Sonny Dykes and his game plan. TCU certainly benefited from scoring two defensive touchdowns off interceptions, as well as some questionable calls by the officials, but there was also never a point outside of the Wolverines first possession of the game where it felt as though the Horned Frogs weren’t in control.
Buckeyes quarterback C.J Stroud torched Georgia’s defense through the air, to the tune of 348 yards and 4 touchdowns, but a lot of that had to do with Ohio State not being able to establish much in the form of a running game. TCU doesn’t have nearly as many explosive options at wide receiver as the Buckeyes, so the matchup between Quintin Johnson / Kelee Ringo will be huge in this one – at 6’2, Ringo has great size for a cornerback, so Johnson shouldn’t be able to bully him with his frame. Georgia also gave up 502 yards passing against LSU in the $EC Championship game, so Ohio State’s success may not be a fluke, although the outcome of that game was never in question after the first quarter.
TCU running back Kendre Miller has been electric all season, averaging over 6 yards per carry on 1,399 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, but he got banged up against Michigan and was forced to watch the final outcome of the game play out from the sidelines, so his status against the Bulldogs is currently up in the air. While it would obviously be a huge boost for the Horned Frogs if he’s able to gut it out and take the field tonight, teams don’t really have much rushing success against Georgia regardless, so I don’t believe he’d be a big factor either way.
I don’t think it’s too far reaching to say that Georgia will win this game, but I can’t pass on the points here, as the Horned Frogs have shown all season their willingness to fight until the final whistle, leaving a prime opportunity for a backdoor cover.
TCU +13 (-110) 1 unit
Under 63.5 points (-110) .5 unit
Kenny McIntosh over 22.5 receiving yards (-110) 1 unit
Max Duggan under 29.5 rushing yards (-115) 1 unit
Max Duggan over 241.5 passing yards (-115) .5 unit
Stetson Bennett over 13.5 rushing yards (-115) 1 unit
Stetson Bennett over .5 rushing touchdowns (+155) .5 unit
Brock Bowers over .5 receiving touchdowns (-105) .5 unit