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Game Preview & Pick:

Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller took a big step forward last season, posting a 3.91 ERA despite finishing with a somewhat misleading 5-12 record. All he’s done for an encore so far this year is become one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball, and tonight he gets a juicy matchup at home against a minor league lineup. Keller is 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA across 5 starts at PNC Park, while Athletics starter James Kaprielian has a 10.32 ERA on the road. Oakland is a paltry 5-26 on the road (it’s not like they’re much better at home), and I just can’t resist grabbing the run line here.

Pittsburgh Run Line (-130) 1 unit

Game Preview & Pick:

I want to keep riding the Zach Eflin train, which has been working out pretty well thus far. Eflin is 7-1 this season, with a 3.30 ERA, but he’s been flat out dominant pitching at Tropicana Field, where he’s 6-0 with a 2.19 ERA. What’s maybe a little misleading are his splits between day / night games – he has a 2.72 ERA across 7 starts in day games, and a 4.76 ERA in 3 starts after the sun starts to set. He’s also given up a .274 batting average against righties, compared to .189 against lefties, so Minnesota’s lineup will be something to monitor tonight, especially considering how riddled it’s been with injuries. Twins starter Louie Varland has been solid, and his home / road splits are fairly identical, so I’m going to go with my gut here and lay off the temptation of grabbing the Rays moneyline.

Minnesota Run Line (-140) 1 unit

Game Preview & Pick:

Given the high projected run total tonight, I’m inclined to lean towards Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin, who has posted a 1.77 ERA across 7 starts this season. He’s actually been better pitching on the road than at home, although Great American Ballpark is no cup of tea for any pitcher. Reds starter Luke Weaver has a 6.83 ERA pitching in night games, and righties are batting .323 against him, so I expect a potent Dodgers lineup to get to him enough to come away with a victory.

Los Angeles ML (-180) 1.5 units