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Game Preview & Pick:

Taking the Tigers on the run line against Blue Jays starter Alek Mahoah didn’t work out very well on Friday night, so of course I’m going back to the well again here. Detroit starter Tarik Skubal was dominant against Oakland on the 4th of July (the increased velocity from his minor league rehab starts held true), and while the Blue Jays are obviously a much taller task, being a major league lineup and all, they struggle against lefties. My biggest concern is how long of a leash Skubal has, after he was removed after only 57 pitches against the Athletics – he didn’t give up any hits or walks across 4 shutout innings, while striking out 6 – but the Tigers bullpen looked just fine in helping combine for a no-hitter yesterday. Riley Greene reached base in all 4 of his plate appearances in his first game back from the IL with a fractured wrist, so he looks ready to pick up where he left off. Given Toronto starter Chris Bassitt’s struggles on the road, I can’t resist being hurt again by the Tigers.

Detroit Run Line (-145) 1.5 units

Bonus Pick:

Riley Greene over 1.5 total bases (+125) 1 unit

Tarik Skubal over 4.5 strikeouts (+115) 1 unit

Game Preview & Pick:

The Rays are the best home team in baseball, so I just can’t see them getting swept in back to back series, regardless of how absurdly good the Braves are. Atlanta starter Bryce Elder has been brilliant this season, and actually pitches better on the road, where he’s 4-0 with an ERA of 1.62, while Tampa Bay starter Zach Eflin is 8-1 with a 2.22 ERA pitching at the Trop. Something’s got to give today, and I think the Rays squeak out a win.

Tampa Bay ML (-130) 1 unit

Game Preview & Pick:

This series rubber match has the makings of a classic pitching duel tonight, as both teams desperately need a win to carry from positive momentum into the second half. The disappointment of both these franchises so far this season mirror each other, but there’s still a lot of baseball left to be played. Padres starter Joe Musgrove is coming off his best start yet since returning from the IL, and I like him to continue rolling tonight. Despite looking more like the Max Scherez of old again lately, Sherzer still has a 4.55 ERA on the road.

San Diego ML (-130) 1 unit

Bonus Pick:

Under 8 runs (-105) 1 unit